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Integrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections
Evelyn G Shu1, Jeremy R Porter2,3,4, Mathew E Hauer5
1First Street Foundation, Brooklyn, NY, USA. evelyn@firststreet.org.
Nature Communications
|December 18, 2023
Summary
Population declines are linked to increased flood exposure. Frequent flooding, like 5 and 20-year events, reduces growth rates by 2-7%, impacting future population trends.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Demography
- Climate Change Adaptation
Background:
- Population shifts are observed after floods, but data is often localized or too coarse.
- Understanding broad population trends related to flood exposure is crucial for planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the relationship between historic flood exposure and population change across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).
- To project future population growth rate impacts based on flood frequency.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historic flood data (2000-2023) for the CONUS.
- Statistically analyzed the correlation between flood exposure levels and population changes.
- Incorporated future population projections to assess long-term impacts.
Main Results:
- Observed population declines are statistically associated with higher historic flood exposure.
- Areas with high flood exposure show initial population responses and projected lower future growth.
- Exposure to frequent flooding (5 and 20-year return periods) correlates with 2-7% lower growth rates.
Conclusions:
- Flood exposure significantly influences population dynamics and growth rates.
- Frequent flooding poses a substantial risk to future population growth in affected areas.
- Findings highlight the need for climate-resilient planning and infrastructure development.
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