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Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging.

Mathew E Hauer1,2, Sunshine A Jacobs1,2, Scott A Kulp3

  • 1Department of Sociology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Climate migration, driven by sea-level rise, could significantly amplify population changes and accelerate aging in coastal areas. This study models these demographic impacts, projecting substantial shifts in the US population distribution by 2100.

Keywords:
climate migrationdemographic amplificationmultiregional population projectionspopulation agingsea-level rise

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Demography
  • Climate change studies

Background:

  • Scientific literature first warned of climate migration in the 1970s due to ice sheet disintegration and coastal city impacts.
  • Previous models of climate migration often excluded demographic processes, potentially underestimating migration amplification and population aging effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR) and its demographic amplification.
  • To examine the impact of climate migration on population aging in origin areas.
  • To project US population distribution changes in counties due to SLR.

Main Methods:

  • Combined matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model based on 40 years of US environmental migration data.
  • Projected US population distribution across counties under various Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios.
  • Analyzed the relationship between population loss due to climate migration and median age increase.

Main Results:

  • Demographic amplification of SLR is projected to increase migration numbers significantly, ranging from 5.3 to 18 times the baseline estimates (0.4-10 million migrants).
  • Coastal areas are projected to experience significant population aging as younger populations migrate away, leaving older residents behind.
  • In highly impacted coastal counties, median age could increase by over 10 years as the percentage of the population lost to climate migration rises.

Conclusions:

  • Climate migration, specifically due to SLR, will likely cause substantial demographic amplification and accelerate population aging in vulnerable coastal regions.
  • The developed modeling approach provides a framework for investigating additional or multiple climate hazards on population distribution.
  • Understanding these demographic shifts is crucial for effective climate adaptation and policy planning.