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Research Note: Demographic Change on the United States Coast, 2020-2100.

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Coastal U.S. counties will become significantly older and more racially diverse by 2100. Projections show a decrease in non-Hispanic White populations and an increase in residents over 65.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Geospatial Analysis

Background:

  • Limited subnational demographic data for U.S. coastal areas hinders long-range planning.
  • Coastal counties house nearly 40% of the U.S. population, making their demographic shifts critical.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project and analyze demographic changes in U.S. coastal counties through 2100.
  • To compare projected demographic trends in coastal versus inland counties.
  • To inform long-range planning for coastal regions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized long-range, county-level population projections.
  • Employed a simplified cohort-component model for demographic forecasting.
  • Analyzed changes by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

Main Results:

  • Coastal counties are projected to become significantly older than inland counties by 2025.
  • The non-Hispanic White population in coastal areas is expected to decrease numerically and proportionally.
  • The population aged over 65 will increase, and the female-to-male ratio will remain stable at 1.03.

Conclusions:

  • Future U.S. coastal populations will be older and more racially and ethnically diverse.
  • Demographic shifts necessitate adaptive planning for coastal regions.
  • Projected trends highlight significant changes in the composition of coastal populations.