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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Public Health
  • Gerontology

Background:

  • Sea-level rise intensifies coastal flooding, impacting essential services and vulnerable populations.
  • Tidal flooding poses a significant threat to the elderly in coastal regions, affecting access to healthcare.
  • Climate change-induced sea-level rise necessitates understanding its impact on mortality risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the historical relationship between tidal flooding and mortality rates in Florida's elderly population.
  • To differentiate the mortality impacts of routine tidal flooding versus tropical storm-induced flooding.
  • To project future elderly mortality risks associated with projected sea-level rise.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized administrative records of deaths, demographics, and residential locations in coastal Florida.
  • Integrated tidal gauge data, high-resolution elevation data, and information on storm and precipitation events.
  • Employed an empirical model to analyze the impact of flooding depth on mortality rates for individuals aged 65 and older.

Main Results:

  • A 20-millimeter increase in tidal flooding depth correlated with a 0.46%–0.60% rise in mortality rates for the elderly.
  • Future sea-level rise may cause an additional 130 elderly deaths annually in Florida, assuming constant conditions.
  • Increased mortality risk is higher for elderly individuals residing over nine minutes from the nearest hospital.

Conclusions:

  • Tidal flooding exacerbates elderly mortality risk, potentially by delaying access to critical medical care.
  • Sea-level rise poses a growing threat to the health and survival of coastal elderly populations.
  • Targeted interventions and improved healthcare access are crucial for mitigating flood-related mortality risks in vulnerable communities.