Fertility policy in China: future options.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Public Policy

Background:

• China's one-child policy, implemented for population control, is set to be abandoned by the end of the century.
• The policy has significant social, economic, and demographic implications for China's population.
• Alternative fertility policies are being considered to guide future population control efforts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate China's current one-child policy against five alternative fertility policies.
• To assess the macrodemographic and microdemographic impacts of each policy.
• To determine the cultural acceptability of proposed policies among the Han Chinese population.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of social, economic, and demographic criteria.
• Evaluation of macrodemographic impacts (population size, aging).
• Assessment of microdemographic effects (elderly support, family economics, women's status) and cultural acceptability.

Main Results:

• The current one-child policy is identified as the least desirable strategy.
• All evaluated two-child policy alternatives demonstrate superior performance compared to the one-child policy.
• Alternative policies show better outcomes in achieving considered policy goals.

Conclusions:

• Retaining the current one-child policy is not recommended.
• Two-child policy alternatives offer more favorable outcomes for China's population control.
• Policy adjustments are necessary to better address demographic and social challenges.