Biomarker adoption in developmental science: A data-driven modelling of trends from 90 biomarkers across 20 years

Developmental scientists have adopted numerous biomarkers in their research to better understand the biological underpinnings of development, environmental exposures, and variation in long-term health. Yet, adoption patterns merit investigation given the substantial resources used to collect, analyse, and train to use biomarkers in research with infants and children. We document trends in use of 90 biomarkers between 2000 and 2020 from approximately 430,000 publications indexed by the Web of Science. We provide a tool for researchers to examine each of these biomarkers individually using a data-driven approach to estimate the biomarker growth trajectory based on yearly publication number, publication growth rate, number of author affiliations, National Institutes of Health dedicated funding resources, journal impact factor, and years since the first publication. Results indicate that most biomarkers fit a "learning curve" trajectory (i.e., experience rapid growth followed by a plateau), though a small subset decline in use over time.