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A short-term price prediction-based trading strategy.

Weijia Fan1,2,3, Ru Zhang1, Hao He1

  • 1School of Management, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin, P. R. China.

Plos One
|March 7, 2024
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a quantitative trading strategy using short-term price forecasting to balance investment returns and risks. The model effectively mitigates risk, guiding objective trading decisions.

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Area of Science:

  • Quantitative Finance
  • Financial Market Analysis

Background:

  • Quantitative investment theory is a key area in financial markets.
  • Investors seek to understand market dynamics for better decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a short-term prediction-based trading strategy.
  • To balance investment returns with risk mitigation, considering investor risk preferences.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the GM(1,1) model for short-term price dynamics prediction.
  • Developed a multi-objective planning equation for optimizing asset allocation.
  • Conducted a case study with gold and bitcoin price data (2016-2021).

Main Results:

  • The proposed strategy effectively balances return and risk.
  • Short-term price forecasting was shown to be a potent tool for proactive risk mitigation.
  • Empirical analysis affirmed the strategy's efficacy and resilience.

Conclusions:

  • The strategy facilitates judicious and objective trading practices.
  • The model offers tangible utility for real-world investment decisions.
  • Proficient price forecasting enhances risk management in quantitative trading.