Value of Dual-Energy CT-Derived Metrics for the Prediction of Bone Non-union in Distal Radius Fractures

Bone non-union is a serious complication of distal radius fractures (DRF) that can result in functional limitations and persistent pain. However, no accepted method has been established to identify patients at risk of developing bone non-union yet. This study aimed to compare various CT-derived metrics for bone mineral density (BMD) assessment to identify predictive values for the development of bone non-union.

CT images of 192 patients with DRFs who underwent unenhanced dual-energy CT (DECT) of the distal radius between 03/2016 and 12/2020 were retrospectively identified. Available follow-up imaging and medical health records were evaluated to determine the occurrence of bone non-union. DECT-based BMD, trabecular Hounsfield unit (HU), cortical HU and cortical thickness ratio were measured in normalized non-fractured segments of the distal radius.

Patients who developed bone non-union were significantly older (median age 72 years vs. 54 years) and had a significantly lower DECT-based BMD (median 68.1 mg/cm³ vs. 94.6 mg/cm³, p < 0.001). Other metrics (cortical thickness ratio, cortical HU, trabecular HU) showed no significant differences. ROC and PR curve analyses confirmed the highest diagnostic accuracy for DECT-based BMD with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 for the ROC curve and an AUC of 0.46 for the PR curve. In logistic regression models, DECT-based BMD was the sole metric significantly associated with bone non-union.

DECT-derived metrics can accurately predict bone non-union in patients who sustained DRF. The diagnostic performance of DECT-based BMD is superior to that of HU-based metrics and cortical thickness ratio.