[Research on the Evaluation Method and Application of Provincial Differentiated Carbon Peaking in China]

Promoting regions with favorable conditions to take the lead in reaching a carbon peak is an inevitable step towards achieving the dual carbon goals under the "nationwide coordinated action" plan. Considering the differences among Chinese provinces, this study measured the peaking pressure of each province based on the spatial distribution of carbon emissions. We then constructed a provincial peaking capacity evaluation system based on five dimensions, namely, peaking pressure, emission reduction status, economic development, policy support, and resource endowment, to comprehensively evaluate the carbon peaking capacity of 30 provincial administrative regions in China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Tibet, using the entropy value method to determine the index weights. The 30 provinces were divided into five peaking tiers according to the evaluation results. The results showed that:① 18 regions, such as Hainan and Beijing, displayed a surplus in carbon emission space; eight regions, including Hebei and Shandong, showed a deficit in carbon emission space; and the carbon emission spaces allocated to Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, and Hubei were comparable to their respective actual emissions. ② Developed regions generally had a higher carbon peaking capacity than that of less developed regions, with Beijing and Shanghai showing outstanding carbon peaking capacity, whereas Jiangxi and Guizhou had more room to improve their capacity. Finally, differentiated peaking targets and priority actions were proposed according to the provinces' different peaking tiers and local conditions.