[Comparison on Carbon Emissions Decoupling and Driving Factors Between Carbon Peaking Countries and China]

Amid increasingly severe climate change challenges， conducting research on global carbon peaking progress and driving factors can provide references for formulating scientifically feasible carbon neutrality strategies in China. Based on the data from the World Bank and the International Energy Agency for the period of 1970-2023， this study employs the Mann-Kendall （MK） test to assess carbon peaking status across 218 countries and regions. The Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China and six representative carbon-peaked nations， while the LMDI decomposition method identifies driving factors of emission changes. Key findings revealed that： ① By 2023， 57 countries/regions had achieved carbon peaking with 33 in plateau phases. Compared with the research results in 2019， the proportion of carbon peaking countries/regions increased from 19.7% in 2019 to 26.1% in 2023， reflecting an overlap rate of 76.7%. ②Developed nations/regions like the United States， UK， France， Germany， Japan， and South Korea transitioned from weak to strong decoupling between emissions and economic growth， whereas China remained in weak decoupling since 2008. ③ The primary drivers for promoting and restraining the growth of carbon emissions were respectively identified as the economic development effect and energy intensity effect. Comparatively， the population size effect and energy structure effect demonstrated relatively minor influences， with differentiated manifestations across countries/regions. The population size effect exhibited a unique restraining impact in Japan but showed promoting effects in other economies， while the energy structure effect presented promoting effects only in France and China yet demonstrated negative restraining effects in other economic entities.