Examining Trajectories of Change on the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR)

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Forensic Psychology
• Correctional Services

Background:

• Dynamic risk assessment scales are crucial for predicting recidivism.
• Previous evaluations often use single scores, neglecting changes over time.
• Proximal risk assessments typically outperform baseline assessments in predicting recidivism.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the dynamic properties of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Reentry (DRAOR) scale.
• To assess the predictive validity of baseline versus proximal DRAOR scores on recidivism and revocation.

Main Methods:

• The study analyzed data from 4,736 adults on community supervision in Iowa, with 33,965 assessments.
• Examined changes in DRAOR domains over time.
• Evaluated predictive validity of baseline and proximal DRAOR scores in a sample of 11,421 adults.

Main Results:

• Clients showed statistically significant but small changes in DRAOR domains over time.
• DRAOR baseline scores predicted recidivism and revocation.
• Proximal DRAOR scores did not improve prediction accuracy compared to baseline scores.

Conclusions:

• The DRAOR scale demonstrated limited dynamic change in this Iowa sample.
• Findings contrast with previous research, suggesting potential implementation fidelity issues.
• Further research is needed to understand DRAOR's dynamic properties and reassessment data in community corrections.