Structural analysis of the future of the coffee industry in the Amazonas region using a MICMAC approach

Currently there are problems in improving the competitiveness of the coffee industry in Amazonas, in this context the present research seeks to analyze the future behavior of the coffee industry through a structural analysis with MICMAC. For this purpose, 14 coffee guilds of Amazonas were interviewed, followed by an external and internal evaluation and a structural analysis with MICMAC. Subsequently, future events were analyzed and validated by experts. MICMAC identified in the short term the importance of local and regional governments supporting the coffee associations in order to achieve their objectives, such as increasing organic coffee production and expanding the coffee frontier; in the medium term, a coffee research center should be created; and in the long term, studies on the different microclimates should be carried out in order to achieve a high price and international demand. The motricity and dependency study contributed to the generation of eight probable events, of which five events are likely to occur by 2030 and a desirable scenario is the ideal.