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Declined terrestrial ecosystem resilience.

Ying Yao¹, Yanxu Liu¹, Fengyu Fu¹

¹State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

Global Change Biology

|April 22, 2024

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is declining globally, with over 60% of ecosystems showing a trend shift. Climate change, especially under high-emission scenarios, poses a significant future risk to ecosystem stability.

Keywords:

CMIP6 autocorrelation breakpoint climate variability recovery rate resilience

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Climate Change Science
Remote Sensing

Background:

Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is vital for ecosystem stability post-disturbance.
Past decades' resilience changes and future risks under climate change remain unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

To identify trends in terrestrial ecosystem resilience.
To analyze drivers of resilience changes.
To assess future resilience loss risks using CMIP6 models.

Main Methods:

Utilized two remotely sensed vegetation indices to identify resilience trends.
Performed attribution analysis to determine driving factors of resilience changes.
Assessed future resilience loss risks using data from eight CMIP6 models under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Main Results:

Over 60% of terrestrial ecosystems shifted from increasing to declining resilience trends.
Drivers of declined resilience varied regionally: precipitation variability (tropics), decreased vegetation cover (arid regions), temperature variability (temperate regions), and increased average temperature (cold regions).
CMIP6 projections indicate more severe resilience declines under SSP585 compared to SSP126 and SSP245, particularly in cold regions.

Conclusions:

Terrestrial ecosystems face continued degradation of resilience.
Urgent climate change mitigation actions are necessary to prevent future ecosystem resilience loss.