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Walking the Talk: How to Identify Anti-Pluralist Parties.

Juraj Medzihorsky1,2, Staffan I Lindberg2

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|May 7, 2024
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Summary

Identifying future autocratizers is possible by examining anti-pluralism. This study introduces an Anti-Pluralism Index (API) using global party data, confirming its effectiveness in signaling potential threats to democracy.

Keywords:
anti-pluralismautocratizationideologyparty rhetoricpopulism

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Comparative Politics
  • Democracy Studies

Background:

  • A rise in global autocratization presents a significant threat to democratic systems worldwide.
  • Democratically elected leaders increasingly erode democratic norms, posing a challenge to existing democracies.
  • Early identification of potential autocratizers is crucial for safeguarding democratic institutions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if anti-pluralism, rather than populism or ideology, can predict future autocratizers.
  • To develop and empirically test a new Anti-Pluralism Index (API) for identifying potential threats to democracy.
  • To assess the predictive validity of anti-pluralist indicators in signaling leaders who may undermine democracy.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the expert-coded V-Party dataset, encompassing global political parties from 1970 to 2019.
  • Developed a novel Anti-Pluralism Index (API) based on expert assessments of party characteristics.
  • Conducted systematic empirical tests to validate the API's predictive power.

Main Results:

  • The Anti-Pluralism Index (API) effectively identifies leaders and parties with anti-democratic tendencies.
  • Evidence supports the argument that anti-pluralism is a key indicator of potential autocratization.
  • The API and Linz's indicators successfully signal individuals likely to derail democracy if in power.

Conclusions:

  • Anti-pluralism is a more accurate predictor of future autocratizers than populism or extreme ideology.
  • The developed Anti-Pluralism Index (API) provides a valuable tool for early detection of threats to democracy.
  • Findings underscore the importance of monitoring anti-pluralist sentiments in political actors to preserve democratic norms.