Gradient boosted regression as a tool to reveal key drivers of temporal dynamics in a synthetic yeast community

Microbial communities are vital to our lives, yet their ecological functioning and dynamics remain poorly understood. This understanding is crucial for assessing threats to these systems and leveraging their biotechnological applications. Given that temporal dynamics are linked to community functioning, this study investigated the drivers of community succession in the wine yeast community. We experimentally generated population dynamics data and used it to create an interpretable model with a gradient boosted regression tree approach. The model was trained on temporal data of viable species populations in various combinations, including pairs, triplets, and quadruplets, and was evaluated for predictive accuracy and input feature importance. Key findings revealed that the inoculation dosage of non-Saccharomyces species significantly influences their performance in mixed cultures, while Saccharomyces cerevisiae consistently dominates regardless of initial abundance. Additionally, we observed multispecies interactions where the dynamics of Wickerhamomyces anomalus were influenced by Torulaspora delbrueckii in pairwise cultures, but this interaction was altered by the inclusion of S. cerevisiae. This study provides insights into yeast community succession and offers valuable machine learning-based analysis techniques applicable to other microbial communities, opening new avenues for harnessing microbial communities.