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Global Trends in Kidney Stone Awareness: A Time Series Analysis from 2004-2023
Noppawit Aiumtrakul1, Charat Thongprayoon2, Supawadee Suppadungsuk2,3
1Department of Medicine, John A. Burns School of Medicine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA.
Background:
Despite the prevalence and incidence of kidney stones progressively increasing worldwide, public awareness of this condition remains unclear. Understanding trends of awareness can assist healthcare professionals and policymakers in planning and implementing targeted health interventions. This study investigated online search interest in "kidney stone" by analyzing Google Trends, focusing on stationarity of the trends and predicting future trends.
Methods:
We performed time series analysis on worldwide Google monthly search data from January 2004 to November 2023. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was used to assess the stationarity of the data, with a p-value below 0.05 indicating stationarity. Time series forecasting was performed using the autoregressive integrated moving average to predict future trends.
Results:
The highest search interest for "kidney stone" (score 100) was in August 2022, while the lowest was in December 2007 (score 36). As of November 2023, search interest remained high, at 92. The ADF test was significant (p = 0.023), confirming data stationarity. The time series forecasting projected continued high public interest, likely reflecting ongoing concern and awareness. Notably, diverse regions such as Iran, the Philippines, Ecuador, the United States, and Nepal showed significant interest, suggesting widespread awareness of nephrolithiasis.
Conclusion:
This study highlighted that "kidney stone" is a consistently relevant health issue globally. The increase and stationarity of search trends, the forecasted sustained interest, and diverse regional interest emphasize the need for collaborative research and educational initiatives. This study's analysis serves as a valuable tool for shaping future healthcare policies and research directions in addressing nephrolithiasis related health challenges.
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