Prognostic Factors in Necrotizing Fasciitis: Insights from a Two-Decade, Two-Center Study Involving 209 Cases

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a critical disease with high morbidity and mortality rates that poses significant challenges in diagnosis and treatment. Prognostic factors for the clinical course of NF remain unclear and are currently under research. This study aims to identify such factors in a large cohort of patients which represents a major comprehensive investigation of prognostic factors for NF.

Retrospective analysis was conducted on necrotizing fasciitis cases from 2003 to 2023 at two German hospitals. Data included demographics, comorbidities, laboratory findings, infection site, causative microorganisms and outcomes. Statistical analysis involved t-tests, chi-square tests, and ROC analysis.

A total of 209 patients were included, with a mortality rate of 18%. Patients were categorized into survivors (n = 171) and non-survivors (n = 38). Non-survivors were significantly older (68.9 ± 13.9 years vs. 55.9 ± 14.3 years; p < 0.01) and exhibited a higher prevalence of peripheral vascular diseases, cancer, and heart, liver, or renal insufficiency. Laboratory findings and scoring results also varied significantly between the two groups. The ROC curve analysis identified age as a predictor of mortality, with an optimal cut-off value of 68.5 years (sensitivity: 60.5%, specificity: 81.9%). Higher age was associated with increased mortality risk.

The patient's age stands out as the primary predictive element for mortality in necrotizing fasciitis. Additionally, we advocate for employing the Laboratory and Anamnestic Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LARINF-score), which holds substantial prognostic significance and is straightforward to calculate. Considering our findings, crafting a clinical algorithm or scoring mechanism to forecast mortality in NF would be a promising target for future research.