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Automated local lockdowns for SARS-CoV-2 epidemic control-assessment of effect by controlled interrupted time series
Laura Espenhain1, Steen Ethelberg1,2, Laust Hvas Mortensen2,3
1Department of Infectious Disease epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Objectives:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, broad non-pharmaceutical interventions such as national lockdowns were effective but had significant drawbacks, prompting targeted approaches, such as Denmark's localized lockdowns, based on specific epidemiological criteria. This study evaluates the effect of Denmark's automated local lockdown strategy on epidemic control to inform future response.
Methods:
This was a register-based controlled interrupted time series analysis, examining SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in Danish parishes from March to September 2021. The matching of control parishes was based on location, time, and pre-lockdown infection trends, with the lockdown's start defined as the day after a parish exceeded the lockdown criteria. Follow-up included 3-week pre-lockdown and 2-week post-lockdown.
Results:
A total of 30 parishes were mandated to lockdown, approximately 3.5% of the population of Denmark. A total of 94 control parishes were used as 109 controls. The decrease in the incidence during the 2-week follow-up period after the initiation of the lockdown was 13% points higher in case parishes: in case parishes, the incidence was reduced by 78% compared with 65% in control parishes.
Conclusions:
Our findings demonstrate that local lockdowns did have a positive effect in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making them valuable in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and an important alternative to national lockdowns.
