Severe obesity is associated with worse outcomes than lean metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is highly prevalent in people with obesity. We aimed to study the association of body mass index (BMI) with clinical outcomes in patients with MASLD.

A retrospective cohort of 32,900 patients with MASLD, identified through the International Classification of Diseases-9 and 10 codes within the electronic health records of a large US-based health system, with a mean follow-up of 5.5 years (range: 1-15 y), was stratified into 6 BMI categories, <25, 25-<30, 30-<40, 40-<50, and ≥50 kg/m2.

The risk of liver decompensation and extrahepatic obesity-associated cancers had a J-shaped profile (both ps for linear and quadratic terms <0.05). Compared to patients with BMI 25-<30 kg/m2, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for liver decompensation of patients with BMI <25 and BMI ≥50 kg/m2 were 1.44 (1.17-1.77) and 2.27 (1.66-3.00), respectively. The corresponding figures for obesity-associated extrahepatic cancer were 1.15 (0.97-1.36) and 1.29 (1.00-1.76). There was an inverse association for BMI with liver transplantation and non-obesity-associated cancer (both ps for linear terms <0.05), but no association with HCC or all types of cancers combined. A similar J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality was observed; adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for BMI <25 and ≥50 kg/m2 were 1.51 (1.32-1.72) and 3.24 (2.67-3.83), respectively, compared with BMI 25-<30 kg/m2 (both ps for linear and quadratic terms <0.001).

Patients with MASLD and very severe obesity (BMI ≥50 kg/m2) had the highest risk, exceeding that of patients with lean MASLD, for developing liver decompensation, obesity-associated extrahepatic cancers, or dying from any cause.