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Risk to reoffend changes over time: Improving correctional programming through progress monitoring.

Kelly M Babchishin1, R Karl Hanson1, Seung C Lee2

  • 1Department of Psychology, Carleton University.

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Monitoring sexual recidivism risk is crucial. Recent scores from ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 tools best predict reoffending risk in supervised individuals, highlighting the importance of dynamic risk assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Criminology
  • Correctional Services

Background:

  • Progress monitoring is essential for evidence-based practice in corrections.
  • Supervision of individuals who commit sexual offenses requires careful risk assessment due to potential negative outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine different models of progress monitoring for individuals under community supervision for sexual offenses.
  • To determine how progress monitoring should inform sexual recidivism risk assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective longitudinal study of 2,939 men with a history of sexual offenses.
  • Comparison of different scoring models (most recent, worst, best, rolling average) for ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 risk assessment tools.
  • Assessment of STABLE-2007's incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99R.

Main Results:

  • The most recent scores from ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 were superior predictors of sexual recidivism compared to other scoring models.
  • Latest STABLE-2007 scores provided incremental prediction of sexual recidivism beyond baseline risk (Static-99R).

Conclusions:

  • Sexual recidivism risk is dynamic and changes over time.
  • Repeated assessment of dynamic risk factors enhances community corrections.
  • Utilizing recent risk assessment scores improves the accuracy of predicting sexual recidivism.