Predicting High-Risk Esophageal Varices in Cirrhosis: A Multi-Parameter Splenic CT Study

To explore the value of splenic hemodynamic parameters from low-dose one-stop dual-energy and perfusion CT (LD-DE&PCT) in non-invasively predicting high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) in cirrhotic patients.

We retrospectively analyzed cirrhotic patients diagnosed with esophageal varices (EV) through clinical, laboratory, imaging, and endoscopic examinations from September 2021 to December 2023 in our hospital. All patients underwent LD-DE&PCT to acquire splenic iodine concentration and perfusion parameters. Radiation dose was recorded. Patients were classified into non-HREV and HREV groups based on endoscopy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed, and the prediction model for HREV was constructed. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Univariate analysis revealed that significant differences were found in portal iodine concentration (PIC), blood flow (BF), permeability surface (PS), spleen volume (V-S), total iodine concentration (TIC), and total blood volume of the spleen (BV-S) between groups. TIC demonstrated the highest predictive value with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.87. Multivariate analysis showed that PIC, PS, and BV-S were independent risk factors for HREV. The logistic regression model for predicting HREV had an AUC of 0.93. The total radiation dose was 20.66 ± 4.07 mSv.

Splenic hemodynamic parameters obtained from LD-DE&PCT can non-invasively and accurately assess the hemodynamic status of the spleen in cirrhotic patients with EV and predict the occurrence of HREV. Despite the retrospective study design and limited sample size of this study, these findings deserve further validation through prospective studies with larger cohorts.