Multi-scenario analysis and optimization strategy of ecological security pattern in the Weihe river basin

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Ecology
• Geographic Information Systems

Background:

• The Weihe River Basin (WRB) faces challenges in balancing ecological protection and economic development.
• Establishing an effective Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is crucial for ensuring ecological security (ES).

Purpose of the Study:

• To project land use change (LUCC) and analyze Ecological Security Patterns (ESPs) in the WRB under different future scenarios by 2040.
• To identify key ecological nodes and corridors for optimizing ESPs.

Main Methods:

• Coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model for LUCC projection.
• Application of circuit theory to generate ecological corridors and identify ecological nodes.
• Comparative analysis of ESPs under Ecological Protection (EP), Economic Development (ED), and Natural Development (ND) scenarios.

Main Results:

• The EP scenario yielded the highest proportions of beneficial land cover (forest, grassland, water) and minimal fragmentation.
• The ED scenario showed significant urban expansion and fragmented ecological source areas (8018.82 km²).
• The ND scenario's ecological source area (8474.99 km²) and spatial pattern closely resembled the 2020 baseline.

Conclusions:

• The EP scenario offers the most optimal ecological environment, while the ED scenario poses risks due to fragmentation.
• Maintaining the integrity and connectivity of ecological sources, alongside protecting key nodes, is vital for ESP optimization.
• A spatial strategy of "three zones, three belts, and one center" is proposed for sustainable development in the WRB.