Increasing magic number and other trends in diagnostic radiology NRMP match data

Area of Science:

• Medical Education
• Radiology Residency Matching

Background:

• The "magic number" (ranks for >90% match chance) is unstudied in diagnostic radiology (DR).
• This metric reflects field competitiveness and aids applicants/mentors.
• Assessing trends in DR's magic number is crucial for understanding applicant strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate changes in the magic number for diagnostic radiology residency over the past 10 years.
• To analyze trends in match competitiveness for DR compared to general US MD seniors.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the NRMP's Charting Outcomes in the Match data from the last 10 cycles.
• Analyzed changes in the magic number and compared DR match rates to US MD seniors.

Main Results:

• The DR magic number increased from 2 (2016) to 14 (2022).
• DR applicants were more likely to match than US MD seniors in 2014, 2016, 2020, but less likely in 2018, 2022.
• Increased competitiveness necessitates wider application strategies.

Conclusions:

• Diagnostic radiology residency is becoming increasingly competitive.
• The rising magic number may be influenced by job market, student preferences, and increased access to training opportunities.
• Future impacts of Step 1 pass/fail and preference signaling on DR competitiveness remain unknown.