Using climate envelopes and earth system model simulations for assessing climate change induced forest vulnerability

Area of Science:

• Forestry science
• Climate change impact studies
• Ecology

Background:

• Forest ecosystems face significant threats from changing climatic conditions, including drought, disease, and infestation, leading to widespread forest die-offs.
• Commercially important coniferous tree species in Central Europe are particularly vulnerable to these climate-induced stresses, resulting in substantial economic and ecological losses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To approximate the risk to tree species under future climate scenarios using climate envelope exceedance (CEE).
• To evaluate the impact of climate extremes versus annual averages on assessing forest vulnerability and adaptation options.

Main Methods:

• Utilized current species presence-absence data and historical climate information.
• Integrated future climate scenarios from various Earth System Models.
• Applied climate envelope exceedance (CEE) analysis to quantify species risk.

Main Results:

• Future climate scenarios project drier and warmer conditions, indicating significant CEEs, especially for spruce.
• Annual climate averages obscure the impact of climate extremes, leading to an underestimation of risk.
• Inclusion of climate extremes demonstrated a broader increase in CEEs across all studied tree species.

Conclusions:

• Climate extremes significantly influence forest die-offs and cannot be adequately represented by annual climate averages.
• A revised assessment of forest risk and adaptation strategies is necessary when considering climate extremes.
• Understanding climate extremes is crucial for effective forest management and conservation under climate change.