Understanding futility in pancreaticoduodenectomy: Insights from a national cohort

Pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), the only surgical option for right-sided pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), carries significant morbidity. Not all patients may be deriving a survival benefit from this operation. We sought to identify the rate of futile PD and its associated factors in a large national cohort.

We performed a retrospective analysis using the National Cancer Database (2004-2020), including all patients who underwent PD for non-metastatic PDAC. The primary outcome was operative futility, which was defined as death within 12 months of diagnosis despite PD. Multivariable regression was used to identify factors associated with futility. We performed a subgroup analysis on patients who received neoadjuvant systemic therapy.

Data from 66 326 patients were analyzed, and 16 772 (25.3%) underwent PD that met criteria for futility. Macroscopically positive margins (odds ratio [OR]: 2.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.36-3.48), poor tumor differentiation (OR: 2.44; 95% CI: 2.25-2.65), and N2 nodal stage (OR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.98-2.20) were associated with the greatest odds of futility. Meanwhile, receipt of any systemic therapy (OR: 0.33; 95% CI: 0.31-0.34), receipt of any radiation (OR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.57-0.63), and receipt of neoadjuvant systemic therapy (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.57-0.66) were associated with the lowest odds of futility. In the neoadjuvant subgroup, a longer diagnosis-to-surgery interval was associated with lower odds of futility.

PD was futile in about one quarter of patients. Futility was associated with higher age and worse tumor biology. Receipt of neoadjuvant therapy resulted in fewer futile operations.