Probabilities of eventually developing or dying of cancer--United States, 1985

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Cancer Research

Background:

• Traditional cancer burden metrics rely on incidence and mortality rates.
• A comprehensive understanding requires analyzing lifetime probabilities of developing or dying from cancer.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce and analyze lifetime probabilities of developing or dying from cancer.
• To track trends in these probabilities from 1975 to 1985 across different sex and race groups.

Main Methods:

• Calculated probabilities at birth and various ages for developing or dying of cancer within 10, 20 years, or a lifetime.
• Analyzed trends for males and females, among white and black populations, for 1975, 1980, and projected to 1985.

Main Results:

• A modest, continuous increase in lifetime cancer development probabilities observed across all four sex-race groups.
• White males exhibit the highest birth probability of developing cancer; black females the lowest.
• Males showed larger probability increases (over 3%) than females (≤2%) between 1980-1985.
• A 1985 US birth cohort has >1/3 chance of developing invasive cancer; nearly 1/4 chance of dying from cancer (males) vs. 1/5 (females).
• Lung and prostate cancers show highest probabilities and increases for males; breast cancer for females.
• Colon-rectum and lung cancers show the largest increases for women.

Conclusions:

• Lifetime cancer risk probabilities are increasing, influenced by greater longevity and prolonged exposure to carcinogens.
• The rising probabilities must be contextualized within an aging population with increased exposure time.
• Males, particularly white males, face higher lifetime cancer risks and mortality probabilities compared to females.