On Metacognition: Overconfidence in Word Recall Prediction and Its Association with Psychotic Symptoms in Patients...

A two-factor account has been proposed as an explanatory model for the formation and maintenance of delusions. The first factor refers to a neurocognitive process leading to a significant change in subjective experience; the second factor has been regarded as a failure in hypothesis evaluation characterized by an impairment in metacognitive ability. This study was focused on the assessment of metacognition in patients with schizophrenia. The aims of the study were to measure the overconfidence in metacognitive judgments through the prediction of word list recall and to analyze the correlation between basic neurocognition (memory and executive function) and metacognition through a metamemory test and the severity of psychotic symptoms.

Fifty-one participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia were evaluated. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was used to assess the severity of psychiatric symptoms, and the subtest of metamemory included in the Executive Functions and Frontal Lobe-2 battery (BANFE-2) was used to evaluate overconfidence and underestimation errors, intrusion and perseverative response, total volume of recall, and Brief Functioning Assessment Scale (FAST) for social functioning.

The strongest correlation is observed between overconfidence errors and the positive factor of the PANSS (r = 0.774, p < 0.001). For the enter model in the multiple linear regression (r = 0.78, r² = 0.61; F = 24.57, p < 0.001), the only significant predictor was overconfidence errors.

Our results highlight the relevance of a metacognitive bias of overconfidence, strongly correlated with psychotic symptoms, and support the hypothesis that metacognitive defects contribute to the failure to reject contradictory evidence. From our perspective, these findings align with current mechanistic models of schizophrenia that focus on the role of the prefrontal cortex.