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Published on: March 31, 2023
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Quantifying energy transition vulnerability helps more just and inclusive decarbonization
Yifan Shen1, Xunpeng Shi2, Zhibo Zhao3
1Department of Economics and Finance, SILC Business School, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201899, China.
PNAS Nexus
|October 23, 2024
Summary
The energy transition vulnerability index (ETVI) reveals Global South nations face greater fossil fuel phase-out challenges than Global North countries. The COVID-19 pandemic also reversed progress toward global energy transition equity.
Area of Science:
- Climate Change Economics
- Energy Policy
- Sustainable Development
Background:
- The COP28 agreement emphasizes a just transition away from fossil fuels.
- Quantitative assessments of national energy transition vulnerability are lacking.
- Understanding country-specific challenges is crucial for equitable policy-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a framework for assessing energy transition vulnerability across nations.
- To quantify and compare country-level challenges in moving away from fossil fuels.
- To inform policy for a just and inclusive global energy transition.
Main Methods:
- Development of a conceptual framework using the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) method.
- Creation of an Energy Transition Vulnerability Index (ETVI) for country-level scoring.
- Analysis of ETVI scores in relation to geopolitical groups and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Main Results:
- Countries in the Global South generally show higher energy transition vulnerability than those in the Global North.
- The gap in vulnerability between Global South and Global North has widened over the last decade.
- The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted a decade-long trend of decreasing global energy transition vulnerability.
- Four distinct energy transition statuses were identified: Stressful, Leapfrog, Potential Challenges, and Less Painful.
- Significant synergies exist between energy transition resilience and achieving the 2030 UN SDGs.
Conclusions:
- The ETVI provides a vital tool for policymakers to ensure a just and equitable energy transition.
- Addressing the widening vulnerability gap is critical for achieving global climate and development goals.
- Tailored strategies are needed to support countries facing greater challenges in the fossil fuel phase-out.
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