Modeling human activity comprehension at human scale: prediction, segmentation, and categorization

Humans form sequences of event models-representations of the current situation-to predict how activity will unfold. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed for how the cognitive system determines when to segment the stream of behavior and switch from one active event model to another. Here, we constructed a computational model that learns knowledge about event classes (event schemas), by combining recurrent neural networks for short-term dynamics with Bayesian inference over event classes for event-to-event transitions. This architecture represents event schemas and uses them to construct a series of event models. This architecture was trained on one pass through 18 h of naturalistic human activities. Another 3.5 h of activities were used to test each variant for agreement with human segmentation and categorization. The architecture was able to learn to predict human activity, and it developed segmentation and categorization approaching human-like performance. We then compared two variants of this architecture designed to better emulate human event segmentation: one transitioned when the active event model produced high uncertainty in its prediction and the other transitioned when the active event model produced a large prediction error. The two variants learned to segment and categorize events, and the prediction uncertainty variant provided a somewhat closer match to human segmentation and categorization-despite being given no feedback about segmentation or categorization. These results suggest that event model transitioning based on prediction uncertainty or prediction error can reproduce two important features of human event comprehension.