The impact of weather patterns on inter-annual crop yield variability

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Meteorology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Inter-annual crop yield variations impact food security and economic stability.
• Current crop yield models using meteorological variables may not fully capture extreme weather impacts.
• Integrating weather patterns offers a more holistic view of environmental influences on crop development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between 30 UK Met Office weather patterns (MO30) and winter wheat yield limitations in the UK (1990-2020).
• To assess the complex, regional, and phenological stage-specific effects of weather patterns on crop yields.
• To explore the potential of combining weather patterns with crop models for enhanced yield prediction.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 30 distinct UK Met Office weather patterns (MO30) based on mean sea level pressure.
• Correlation analysis (Spearman) to determine the relationship between specific weather patterns and winter wheat yield at different growth stages and regions.
• Examination of historical weather data (1990-2020) and crop yield data.

Main Results:

• Blocked, negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns correlate with suboptimal temperatures for crop yield.
• Anticyclonic weather patterns during sowing, emergence, vernalisation, anthesis, and grain filling showed positive correlations with good yields (up to 0.55).
• Cyclonic patterns were beneficial during the terminal spikelet phase, while negative correlations were strongest during anthesis and grain filling.

Conclusions:

• Weather patterns significantly influence winter wheat yield, with distinct effects across growth stages and regions.
• Combining weather pattern analysis with crop simulation models can improve yield prediction accuracy and timing.
• Projected shifts towards more cyclonic patterns may reduce future wheat yields due to adverse temperature and moisture conditions.