Development of a Flexible Produce Supply Chain Food Safety Risk Model: Comparing Tradeoffs Between Improved Process...

Area of Science:

• Food Safety
• Risk Assessment
• Supply Chain Management

Background:

• The produce industry requires tools to assess food safety interventions and guide investment.
• Evaluating the impact of microbial contamination and control measures is crucial for public health and economic stability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a model for evaluating food safety interventions in produce supply chains.
• To compare the effectiveness of additional product testing versus improved process controls in reducing contamination risks.

Main Methods:

• A generic produce supply chain model was developed in R and made accessible via Shiny.
• Microbial contamination events, increases, reductions, and testing were simulated.
• Two risk metrics were used: overall risk of a positive test (recall proxy) and number of highest-risk lots (public health proxy).

Main Results:

• High variability in contamination significantly increases baseline risk compared to low variability.
• Improved process controls demonstrated superior reduction in recall risk compared to additional product testing.
• While both interventions eliminated highest-risk lots under high variability, additional testing led to greater rejection of lower-risk lots, indicating potential food waste.

Conclusions:

• The developed model effectively evaluates tradeoffs between food safety interventions using industry-relevant metrics.
• Improved process controls appear more effective in reducing public health and recall risks while minimizing food waste.
• The model is adaptable for assessing various commodities, supply chain stages, and interventions.