Impact of Technical-Tactical and Physical Performance on the Match Outcome in Professional Soccer: A Case Study

Match outcomes and championship rankings are the consequence of the team's technical, tactical, and physical variables. This study aimed to compare physical and modern technical-tactical performance variables between matches with different outcomes for a professional soccer team. Total distance covered, distance covered between 20.0 and 25.0 km/h and at > 25.0 km/h, distance covered at ≥ 3 m/s² and at ≤ -3 m·s^-2 along with several modern technical-tactical variables (expected goals in favor (xG) and against (xGA), expected goals chain in favor (xGC) and against (xGCA) and passes per defensive action (PPDA)) were collected for 71 soccer matches during the 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 seasons from a team competing in the French Ligue 2. These technical-tactical and running performance variables were obtained by a validated video tracking system (OPTA) and their values per match were compared depending on the match outcome which was categorized as "loss" (L), "draw" (D) or "win" (W). No significant differences were observed for the different running metrics depending on the match outcome. However, significant differences were observed for xGA (0.70 ± 0.39 vs. 1.24 ± 0.59; p_bonferroni= 0.004) and xGCA (5.38 ± 2.78 vs. 10.92 ± 6.18; p_bonferroni = 0.002) between wins and losses, respectively. Additionally, there was a weak, but significant correlation between xGCA and distance covered in acceleration (r = 0.255; p = 0.032) and deceleration (r = 0.237; p = 0.047). In conclusion, while our study found associations between technical-tactical variables and match outcomes, causality cannot be inferred. Improved technical-tactical performance may positively impact the match result, especially by the reduction of the opposing team's goal expectancy. On the contrary, running performance variables showed no associations with the match outcome.