Supporting long-term condition management: a workflow framework for the co-development and operationalization of machine learning models using electronic health record data insights

The prevalence of long-term conditions such as cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, and diabetes mellitus is rising. These conditions are leading sources of premature mortality, hospital admission, and healthcare expenditure. Machine learning approaches to improve the management of these conditions have been widely explored, with data-driven insights demonstrating the potential to support earlier diagnosis, triage, and treatment selection. The translation of this research into tools used in live clinical practice has however been limited, with many projects lacking clinical involvement and planning beyond the initial model development stage. To support the move toward a more coordinated and collaborative working process from concept to investigative use in a live clinical environment, we present a multistage workflow framework for the co-development and operationalization of machine learning models which use routine clinical data derived from electronic health records. The approach outlined in this framework has been informed by our multidisciplinary team's experience of co-developing and operationalizing risk prediction models for COPD within NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of this framework, alongside a description of the development and operationalization of two of these risk-prediction models as case studies of this approach.