Risk of Microvascular Complications in Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Patients Using Automated Machine Learning...

Background/Objectives: In type 2 diabetes (T2D), collective damage to the eyes, kidneys, and peripheral nerves constitutes microvascular complications, which significantly affect patients' quality of life. This study aimed to prospectively evaluate the risk of microvascular complications in newly diagnosed T2D patients in Dubai, UAE. Methods: Supervised automated machine learning in the Auto-Classifier model of the IBM SPSS Modeler package was used to predict microvascular complications in a training data set of 348 long-term T2D patients with complications using 24 independent variables as predictors and complications as targets. Three automated model scenarios were tested: Full All-Variable Model; Univariate-Selected Model, and Backward Stepwise Logistic Regression Model. An independent cohort of 338 newly diagnosed T2D patients with no complications was used for the model validation. Results: Long-term T2D patients with complications (duration = ~14.5 years) were significantly older (mean age = 56.3 ± 10.9 years) than the newly diagnosed patients without complications (duration = ~2.5 years; mean age = 48.9 ± 9.6 years). The Bayesian Network was the most reliable algorithm for predicting microvascular complications in all three scenarios with an area under the curve (AUC) of 77-87%, accuracy of 68-75%, sensitivity of 86-95%, and specificity of 53-75%. Among newly diagnosed T2D patients, 22.5% were predicted positive and 49.1% negative across all models. Logistic regression applied to the 16 significant predictors between the two sub-groups showed that BMI, HDL, adjusted for age at diagnosis of T2D, age at visit, and urine albumin explained >90% of the variation in microvascular measures. Conclusions: the Bayesian Network model effectively predicts microvascular complications in newly diagnosed T2D patients, highlighting the significant roles of BMI, HDL, age at diagnosis, age at visit, and urine albumin.