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Predicting purulent meningitis in very preterm infants: a novel clinical model
Xiaowei Sun1, Rui Jing2, Yang Li3
1Department of Pediatrics, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, No.107, West Culture Road, Lixia District, Jinan City, Shandong Province, 250000, China.
Background:
Purulent meningitis (PM) is a commonly encountered infectious condition in newborns, which unfortunately can result in infant mortality. Newborns with PM often present nonspecific symptoms. The success of lumbar puncture, an invasive test, relies on the operator's expertise. Preterm infants pose diagnostic challenges compared to full-term babies. The objective of this study is to establish a convenient and effective clinical prediction model based on perinatal factors to assess the risk of PM in very preterm infants, thereby assisting clinicians in developing new diagnostic and treatment strategies.
Methods:
This study involved very preterm infants (gestational age < 32 weeks) admitted to the Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2020 to December 2023. All included infants underwent lumbar puncture. We gathered comprehensive data that included information on maternal health conditions and the clinical features of very preterm infants. The PM was diagnosed according to the diagnostic criteria. This study conducted data analysis and processing using R version 4.1.2. A stepwise regression method was applied for multivariate Logistic regression analysis to select the best predictors for PM and to develop a predictive model. Differences were considered statistically significant at P < 0.05.
Results:
This study enrolled a total of 201 preterm infants, including 117 boys and 84 girls. The gestational age was 28.7 ± 1.7 weeks, and the weight was 1166.2 ± 302.7 g. Ninety infants were diagnosed with PM, while 111 did not have PM. The influencing factors include birth weight, PCT within 24 h after birth, cesarean delivery, and premature rupture of membranes. These were used to construct a risk prediction nomogram and verified its accuracy. The Brier score was 0.157, the calibration slope was 1.0, and the concordance index was 0.849.
Conclusions:
We developed and validated a personalized nomogram to identify high-risk individuals for early prediction of purulent meningitis in very preterm infants. This practical predictive model may help reduce unnecessary lumbar puncture procedures.
Insights
A new nomogram predicts purulent meningitis (PM) risk in very preterm infants using perinatal factors. This tool aids early identification and may reduce invasive lumbar punctures for neonates.
Area of Science:
- Neonatal Medicine
- Infectious Diseases
- Clinical Prediction Modeling
Background:
- Purulent meningitis (PM) is a serious neonatal infection with high mortality.
- Nonspecific symptoms in newborns complicate PM diagnosis.
- Very preterm infants present unique diagnostic challenges for PM.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a clinical prediction model for assessing PM risk in very preterm infants.
- To utilize perinatal factors for a convenient and effective risk assessment tool.
- To aid clinicians in early diagnosis and treatment strategies for neonatal PM.
Main Methods:
- Study included very preterm infants (gestational age < 32 weeks) from January 2020 to December 2023.
- Data on maternal health and infant clinical features were collected.
- A predictive model was developed using stepwise regression and multivariate logistic analysis.
Main Results:
- A total of 201 preterm infants were enrolled; 90 were diagnosed with PM.
- Key influencing factors identified: birth weight, PCT within 24h, cesarean delivery, premature rupture of membranes.
- A validated risk prediction nomogram demonstrated high accuracy (concordance index: 0.849).
Conclusions:
- A personalized nomogram was developed and validated for early PM prediction in very preterm infants.
- This practical model can help identify high-risk neonates.
- The nomogram may reduce the need for unnecessary lumbar puncture procedures.
Related Concept Videos
Bacterial Meningitis I: Introduction
Bacterial Meningitis II: Pathophysiology

