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African Swine Fever in Saxony-Disease Dynamics
Katja Schulz1, Sandra Blome2, Michael Richter3
1Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut Institute of Epidemiology, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
Viruses
|January 8, 2025
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) surveillance in Saxony revealed higher viral prevalence in eastern districts, likely from wild boar spread. Seroprevalence increased over time, indicating disease accumulation and informing control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Wildlife Disease Ecology
Background:
- African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Germany in 2020, with initial wild boar detections in Saxony.
- Understanding ASF transmission dynamics in wild boar populations is crucial for effective control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatiotemporal progression of ASF in wild boar populations in Saxony.
- To compare disease epidemiology in areas with suspected wild boar versus human-mediated introduction.
Main Methods:
- Descriptive analysis and Bayesian space-time modeling of active and passive surveillance data.
- Calculation of prevalence and seroprevalence estimates for ASF virus and antibodies in wild boar.
- Examination of data from eastern Saxony districts and Meissen.
Main Results:
- Higher prevalence estimates were observed in eastern Saxony districts compared to Meissen.
- Increased seroprevalence over time suggests accumulation of surviving wild boar.
- Findings align with patterns of ASF spread in other European regions.
Conclusions:
- ASF epidemiology in Saxony differs between areas of wild boar-driven spread and suspected human introduction.
- Data support targeted ASF control measures in wild boar populations.
- Insights are vital as ASF continues to spread across Europe.
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