Enhancing prediction and inference of daily in-stream nutrient and sediment concentrations using an extreme gradient...

Estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers is a crucial but challenging task due to low-frequency sampling in most watersheds. While predictive modeling can augment sparsely sampled water quality data, it can be challenging due to the complex and multifaceted interactions between several sub-watershed eco-hydrological processes. Traditional water quality prediction models, typically calibrated for individual sites, struggle to fully capture these interactions. This study introduces XGBest, a machine learning-based tool, that integrates hydrological data, land cover, and physical watershed attributes at a regional scale to predict daily concentrations of Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). XGBest leverages 29 environmental variables, including daily and antecedent discharge, temporal features, and landscape characteristics, to comprehensively evaluate water quality dynamics across a large hydrologic region. To explore the robustness of the developed tool, XGBest was validated using observed water quality data in three different hydrologic regions in the eastern United States, encompassing 499 water quality monitoring sites characterized by diverse hydro-climatic conditions and watershed attributes. This study also employed the legacy United States Geological Survey (USGS) tools - LOADEST and WRTDS as benchmarks to evaluate the performance of XGBest in these regions. The results demonstrated that XGBest outperformed LOADEST and WRTDS in predictive accuracy and revealed critical insights into the spatial and temporal variability of nutrient and sediment loads. In addition, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values highlighted the importance of integrating static and dynamic watershed attributes, such as land cover, antecedent discharge, and seasonality, in capturing the complex concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships. This study positions XGBest as a robust and scalable water quality prediction tool that bridges the gap between hydrology and broader environmental management. By combining multiple environmental factors into a unified predictive framework, XGBest enhances our understanding of water quality and supports more effective environmental monitoring and management strategies.