Predicting Robotic Hysterectomy Incision Time: Optimizing Surgical Scheduling with Machine Learning

Operating rooms (ORs) are critical for hospital revenue and cost management, with utilization efficiency directly affecting financial outcomes. Traditional surgical scheduling often results in suboptimal OR use. We aim to build a machine learning (ML) model to predict incision times for robotic-assisted hysterectomies, enhancing scheduling accuracy and hospital finances.

A retrospective study was conducted using data from robotic-assisted hysterectomy cases performed between January 2017 and April 2021 across 3 hospitals within a large academic health system. Cases were filtered for surgeries performed by high-volume surgeons and those with an incision time of under 3 hours (n = 2,702). Features influencing incision time were extracted from electronic medical records and used to train 5 ML models (linear ridge regression, random forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and explainable boosting machine [EBM]). Model performance was evaluated using a dynamic monthly update process and novel metrics such as wait-time blocks and excess-time blocks.

The EBM model was selected for its superior performance compared to the other models. The model reduced the number of excess-time blocks from 1,113 to 905 (P < .001, 95% CI [-329 to -89]), translating to approximately 52-hours over the 51-month study period. The model predicted more surgeries within a 15% range of the true incision time compared to traditional methods. Influential features included surgeon experience, number of additional procedures, body mass index (BMI), and uterine size.

The ML model enhanced the prediction of incision times for robotic-assisted hysterectomies, providing a potential solution to reduce OR underutilization and increase surgical throughput and hospital revenue.