VAE-Surv: A novel approach for genetic-based clustering and prognosis prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes

Several computational pipelines for biomedical data have been proposed to stratify patients and to predict their prognosis through survival analysis. However, these analyses are usually performed independently, without integrating the information derived from each of them. Clustering of survival data is an underexplored problem, and current approaches are limited for biomedical applications, whose data are usually heterogeneous and multimodal, with poor scalability for high-dimensionality.

We introduce VAE-Surv, a multimodal computational framework for patients' stratification and prognosis prediction. VAE-Surv integrates a Variational Autoencoder (VAE), which reduces the high-dimensional space characterizing the molecular data, with a deep survival model, which combines the embedded information with the clinical features. The VAE embedding step prioritizes local coherence within the feature space to detect potential nonlinear relationships among the molecular markers. The latent representation is then exploited to perform K-means clustering. To test the clinical robustness of the algorithm, VAE-Surv was applied to the Genomed4all cohort of Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS), comparing the identified subtypes with the World Health Organization (WHO) classification. The survival outcome was compared with the state-of-the-art Cox model and its penalized versions. Finally, to assess the generalizability of the results, the method was also validated on an external MDS cohort.

Tested on 2,043 patients in the GenomMed4All cohort, VAE-Surv achieved a median C-index of 0.78, outperforming classical approaches. In addition, the latent space enhanced the clustering performance compared to a traditional approach that applies the clustering directly to the input data. Compared to the WHO 2016 MDS subtypes, the analysis of the identified clusters showed that the proposed framework can capture existing clinical categorizations while also suggesting novel, data-driven patient groups. Even tested in an external MDS cohort of 2,384 patients, VAE-Surv achieved a good prediction performance (median C-index=0.74), preserving the interpretability of the main clinical and genetic features.

VAE-Surv enables automatic identification of patients' clusters, while outperforming the traditional CoxPH model in survival prediction tasks at the same time. Applied to MDS use case, the obtained genetic-based clusters exhibit a clear survival stratification, and the application of the clinical information allowed high performance in prognosis prediction.