CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential evapotranspiration for 2021-2060
Robert J Zomer1,2, Jianchu Xu2,3, Donatella Spano1,4,5
1CMCC Foundation -Euro-Mediterranean Center Climate Change, Sassari, Sardinia, Italy.
Open Research Europe
|February 10, 2025
Summary
This study introduces the Future_Global_AI_PET Database, offering global estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI) from CMIP6 models. The database provides crucial data for understanding future climate and eco-hydrological impacts on ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Global climate models project significant changes in water availability and ecosystem dynamics.
- Accurate estimations of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI) are crucial for assessing these impacts.
- Existing datasets may lack the resolution or future projections needed for comprehensive analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present the Future_Global_AI_PET Database, providing high-resolution global PET and AI estimates.
- To offer data for multiple CMIP6 Earth System Models across historical and future time periods and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
- To facilitate scientific and practical applications by illustrating predicted climatic and eco-hydrological impacts.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 22 CMIP6 Earth System Models to generate global estimates of PET and AI at 30 arc-second resolution.
- Included two historical (1960-1990, 1970-2000) and two future (2021-2041, 2041-2060) time periods.
- Developed three multimodel ensemble averages (All, Majority Consensus, High Risk) to account for climate model uncertainty.
Main Results:
- Validated historical PET and AI estimates against weather station data (PET: r²=0.72; AI: r²=0.91) and the CRU_TS v4.04 dataset (PET: r²=0.67; AI: r²=0.80).
- The database provides projections for near- and medium-term climate changes.
- Detailed trends and magnitudes of predicted climatic and eco-hydrological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems are illustrated.
Conclusions:
- The Future_Global_AI_PET Database offers a valuable resource for studying climate change impacts.
- The high-resolution data supports diverse scientific and practical applications related to water resources and ecosystem management.
- The database is archived in ScienceDB and accessible online for researchers worldwide.
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