Adverse prognosis gene expression patterns in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is a heterogeneous disease. Several studies have identified transcriptional subtypes of mCRPC, but comprehensive analysis of prognostic gene expression pathways has been limited. Therefore, we aggregated a cohort of 1012 mCRPC tissue samples from 769 patients and investigated the association of gene expression-based pathways with clinical outcomes and intrapatient and intratumor heterogeneity. Survival data were obtained for 272 patients. Pathway-level enrichment was evaluated using gene set variation analysis. scRNA-seq datasets from mCRPC tissue biopsies and circulating tumor cells were used to investigate heterogeneity of adverse pathways. We identified five pathway clusters: (a) Immune response/WNT/TGF-beta signaling, (b) AR signaling/luminal signatures, (c) mTOR signaling and glycolysis, (d) cell proliferation, and (e) neuroendocrine differentiation. Proliferation, AR signaling loss, and glycolysis/mTOR signaling were independently prognostic. Adverse prognostic pathway scores decreased on treatment with AR signaling inhibitors, but not at progression, suggesting failure to permanently target these pathways. scRNA-seq datasets from mCRPC tissue biopsies and circulating tumor cells were used to investigate heterogeneity of adverse pathways. Our results suggest loss of AR signaling, high proliferation, and a glycolytic phenotype as adverse prognostic pathways in mCRPC that could be used in conjunction with clinical factors to prognosticate for treatment decisions.