[Multi-scenario Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Prediction in Tianjin Based on LEAP Model]

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Energy Policy
• Climate Change Mitigation

Context:

• China's national goals for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality necessitate significant reductions in energy consumption and carbon emissions.
• Tianjin, a major Chinese city, serves as a case study to analyze these trends and develop targeted strategies.
• The study addresses the critical need for localized emission reduction strategies to meet national climate targets.

Purpose:

• To compile a carbon emission inventory for Tianjin and identify key driving factors using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method.
• To construct the LEAP-TJ model, integrating scenario analysis, to forecast terminal energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2022 to 2060.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of different scenarios in achieving emission reduction targets.

Summary:

• Economic scale is identified as the primary driver of increasing terminal carbon emissions in Tianjin.
• Under a baseline scenario, energy consumption and carbon emissions are projected to rise, with emissions 2.7 times higher in 2060 than in 2021.
• A comprehensive scenario indicates Tianjin could achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2025, with an 85.1% reduction by 2060 compared to the baseline.

Impact:

• The findings highlight the significant impact of economic growth on carbon emissions and the potential for substantial reductions through strategic policy implementation.
• The study provides a data-driven framework for Tianjin to achieve its carbon neutrality goals, offering a model for other cities.
• Successful implementation of the comprehensive scenario demonstrates a remarkable carbon emission reduction effect, crucial for meeting national climate objectives.