Predicting strength of femora with metastatic lesions from single 2D radiographic projections using convolutional...

Patients with metastatic bone disease are at risk of pathological femoral fractures and may require prophylactic surgical fixation. Current clinical decision support tools often overestimate fracture risk, leading to overtreatment. While novel scores integrating femoral strength assessment via finite element (FE) models show promise, they require 3D imaging, extensive computation, and are difficult to automate. Predicting femoral strength directly from single 2D radiographic projections using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) could address these limitations, but this approach has not yet been explored for femora with metastatic lesions. This study aimed to test whether CNNs can accurately predict strength of femora with metastatic lesions from single 2D radiographic projections.

CNNs with various architectures were developed and trained using an FE model generated training dataset. This training dataset was based on 36,000 modified computed tomography (CT) scans, created by randomly inserting artificial lytic lesions into the CT scans of 36 intact anatomical femoral specimens. From each modified CT scan, an anterior-posterior 2D projection was generated and femoral strength in one-legged stance was determined using nonlinear FE models. Following training, the CNN performance was evaluated on an independent experimental test dataset consisting of 31 anatomical femoral specimens (16 intact, 15 with artificial lytic lesions). 2D projections of each specimen were created from corresponding CT scans and femoral strength was assessed in mechanical tests. The CNNs' performance was evaluated using linear regression analysis and compared to 2D densitometric predictors (bone mineral density and content) and CT-based 3D FE models.

All CNNs accurately predicted the experimentally measured strength in femora with and without metastatic lesions of the test dataset (R²≥0.80, CCC≥0.81). In femora with metastatic lesions, the performance of the CNNs (best: R²=0.84, CCC=0.86) was considerably superior to 2D densitometric predictors (R²≤0.07) and slightly inferior to 3D FE models (R²=0.90, CCC=0.94).

CNNs, trained on a large dataset generated via FE models, predicted experimentally measured strength of femora with artificial metastatic lesions with accuracy comparable to 3D FE models. By eliminating the need for 3D imaging and reducing computational demands, this novel approach demonstrates potential for application in a clinical setting.