Integrating Stock-Flow Modeling and Energy System Optimization to Explore Decarbonization Pathways for China's Cement
Jingyang Song1, Xiaoke Su1, Lijing Hou1
1College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China.
Environmental Science & Technology
|April 7, 2025
Summary
Material efficiency strategies can significantly cut cement demand by 57%, contributing nearly 50% to decarbonization efforts and lowering costs. This approach reduces reliance on carbon capture for net-zero emissions in the cement sector.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Engineering
- Climate Change Mitigation
Background:
- The cement sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.
- Decarbonizing cement production is challenging, necessitating exploration of diverse mitigation strategies.
- Previous research focused on demand-side material efficiency but overlooked supply-side responses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a framework for projecting comprehensive decarbonization pathways for cement-based materials.
- To assess the impact of material efficiency strategies on cement demand and the broader energy system.
- To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization pathways, including CO2 uptake.
Main Methods:
- Coupling detailed stock-flow modeling with a bottom-up energy system optimization model.
- Utilizing integrated assessment models to simulate decarbonization scenarios.
- Conducting a pilot case study on China's cement sector.
Main Results:
- Material efficiency strategies can reduce cement demand by 57%.
- These strategies contribute approximately 50% to the cumulative decarbonization effort.
- Reduced cement demand lowers the need for supply-side decarbonization technologies and associated costs.
Conclusions:
- Material efficiency offers a cost-effective pathway to net-zero emissions in the cement sector.
- Combining material efficiency with CO2 uptake minimizes reliance on carbon capture and storage.
- The study provides a comprehensive approach to decarbonizing cement-based materials.
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