[Crisis Transformation of the Coupling Effect of Building Carbon Reduction-Environmental Protection-Economic...

Exploring the spatio-temporal evolution and coordinated developmental level of the building carbon reduction-environmental protection-economic development system and analyzing the risks and opportunities of building carbon emission management are crucial for achieving the goals of realizing carbon peak and carbon neutrality. A comprehensive evaluation index system and coupled coordinated development, state space, and crisis transformation degree models were constructed to study the coupling effects of the building carbon reduction-environmental protection-economic development system in China from 2010 to 2020. The results showed that： ① The comprehensive evaluation value of the environmental protection system increased steadily, from 0.44 in 2010 to 0.49 in 2020, with an overall increase of 9.82%, whereas the regional differences were gradually decreasing. The comprehensive evaluation value of the economic development system was the lowest, rising from 0.14 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2020, with an overall increase of 43.16%. Although the growth rate was large, considerable regional differences were observed. The comprehensive evaluation value of the building carbon reduction system showed a decelerating trend, from 0.45 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2020, with an overall decrease of 2.27%, and achieving building carbon peaks in a short time was difficult for the provinces. ② The national coupled coordinated development index was still at a low level, concentrated between 0.3 and 0.4, and marked regional differences were observed, with only a few provinces in the more coordinated developmental level. Overall, the country has shown a growing trend, and the uncoordinated development has gradually evolved into general coordinated development, but the extremely coordinated developmental area is still lacking and has the potential for improvement. The transformation degree of crisis was also at a low level, concentrated between 0.3 and 0.5, with an increase of 49.22% in 2020 compared with that in 2006, and a multi-level differentiation trend was observed. ③ The coupled coordinated development index of most provinces was higher than the crisis transformation degree, making it difficult to judge that their multi-systems were in a state of high development, based on the high coordinated developmental level. Improving the coupled coordination index would not necessarily improve the crisis transformation degree. Comprehensive judgment of the state distribution of the provinces according to the crisis transformation degree, analysis of the crisis, turning the crisis into an opportunity, and optimization of the developmental path are necessary. ④ The realization of building carbon reduction-environmental protection-economic development system crisis transformation requires comprehensive consideration of multi-agent, multi-stage, multi-system, and all-round efforts.