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[Crisis Transformation of "Coordination-Decoupling" Between Transportation Carbon Emissions and Economic Development]
Qing Yang1, Yan-di Zheng1, Jin-Mei Wang1
1School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China.
None:
While the economy is constantly developing, it is also confronted with the environmental crisis of excessive carbon emissions from transportation. Clarifying the relationship between carbon emissions from transportation and economic development and turning crises into opportunities are of great significance for achieving the "dual carbon" goals. Based on the construction of the comprehensive evaluation index system, by applying the principles of coupled coordinated development and Tapio decoupling, a crisis transformation degree model of "coordination-decoupling" was created, and an empirical study on China's transportation carbon emissions and economic development from 2008 to 2022 was conducted. The results show that: ① China's transportation carbon emission index showed a "U" shaped trend, dropping from 0.8 in 2008 to 0.71 in 2017, and then fluctuating upward to 0.76 in 2022. The economic development index was on a fluctuating upward trend, rising from 0.15 in 2008 to 0.29 in 2022. ② Overall, the national coordinated development index has fluctuated and risen year by year, increasing from 0.34 in 2008 to 0.55 in 2022, a growth of 61.8%. However, in terms of local regions, the development time was not synchronized, and the space was unbalanced, which still needs to be improved. ③ The national decoupling situation has experienced an "N-shaped" development trend of "first rising - then falling - and then rising again." Most provinces have been able to achieve strong, weak, or declining decoupling and maintain a stable and good or continuously improving state. ④ The national crisis transformation level showed a significant upward trend. In 2022, it increased by 136.4% compared to that in 2009. The distribution characteristics were "higher in the east and lower in the west, higher in the south and lower in the north," and the hierarchical structure has transformed from a "pyramid" type to an "inverted pyramid" type. ⑤ The crisis transformation analysis of the "coordination-decoupling" of transportation carbon emissions and economic development could more comprehensively and objectively reflect the real situation and problems of the coupling relationship between the two than the single coordination-development or decoupling analysis.
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