A protocol to model future land use scenarios using Dinamica-EGO

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Environmental Science
• Geographic Information Systems
• Urban Planning

Background:

• Land use change is a critical factor influencing ecosystem dynamics, driven by complex ecological, social, economic, and political forces.
• Accurate forecasting of land use change is essential for sustainable urban development and environmental management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and present a comprehensive, step-by-step protocol for forecasting land use changes using Dinamica-Ego software.
• To demonstrate the protocol's application by simulating land use changes up to 2050 for Kaunas, Lithuania, under different scenarios.

Main Methods:

• The protocol involves defining time frames and future scenarios, identifying driving forces, data collection and organization, and landscape metric calculation.
• Key modeling steps include preparing raster cubes, calculating Weights of Evidence (WoE), assessing multicollinearity, and validating the land use change model.
• The Dinamica-Ego software is utilized for the simulation of future land use patterns based on the developed protocol.

Main Results:

• The protocol provides a replicable methodology for land use change modeling applicable to any urban area.
• Simulations were conducted for 'business as usual' and 'urbanization' scenarios for Kaunas, Lithuania, projecting changes to 2050.
• The land use change model developed using this protocol demonstrated high reliability through rigorous validation.

Conclusions:

• The presented protocol offers a robust and validated framework for forecasting land use changes.
• This methodology can significantly aid urban planners and policymakers in anticipating and managing future land use dynamics.
• The Dinamica-Ego software, combined with this protocol, proves effective for reliable land use change simulation and scenario planning.