Balancing priorities for a sustainable future in cities: Land use change and urban ecosystem service dynamics

Cities must prepare for future uncertainties associated with climate change and societal challenges. This study used the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate potential scenarios for Tehran metropolitan area. We considered various scenarios for future development and their implications.The sustainable development scenario produced more balanced outcomes, including rangeland expansion and the preservation of cropland. In addition, using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, we quantified seven ecosystem services from 2017 to 2043, revealing temporal and spatial variations. Some scenarios showed significant declines in water yield, carbon storage, urban cooling, habitat quality, stormwater retention, flood mitigation, and recreation potential, particularly in southern areas. In contrast, sustainable development is a promising scenario, along with compact urban growth and nature conservation. Utilizing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, we identified flood risk mitigation and stormwater management as critical ecosystem service priorities. Synergies emerged among heat mitigation, habitat quality, and water yield, while trade-offs were observed between recreation and others, such as carbon storage and habitat quality. Priority maps from fuzzy geospatial multicriteria analysis identified high-priority areas for ecosystem protection and restoration. The proposed integrated multi-scenario approach discovered the gap in regional, urban, and landscape planning, emphasizing the need for balanced priorities to minimize trade-offs and promote a sustainable urban future. This study helps to clarify the current situation and trends and promote nature-based solutions that help build urban resilience and prepare cities for future challenges.