Aligning national waste management targets with local context: An LCA-based framework for greenhouse gas...

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management significantly impacts urban climate change. National waste management targets usually guide the general advancement in treatment system but lack alignment with local reality. This study examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of MSW management in Shenzhen, China, over a 5-15 years period comparing the complete incineration strategy to other policy combinations. Using a life cycle assessment (LCA) based framework, the study integrates waste generation, source separation, and treatment structure into segmental targets, revealing the internal dynamics that influence GHG emissions within waste configurations. Both short-term and long-term implementation effects are provided in terms of GHG mitigation potential to facilitate the effective design of future strategies. Results suggest that shifting from landfilling to complete incineration reduces short-term GHG emissions because of enhanced energy recovery. However, considering the long-term horizon, food waste separation and transitions in energy structure suggest that retaining some landfilling, alongside prioritizing incineration without further expansion, could mitigate up to 3.3 million tons of GHG emissions. Sensitivity of GHG emissions to waste composition and energy structure grows with time, demonstrating the need for adaptable, locally tailored targets to facilitate smooth transition towards long-term sustainability. Given that a one-size-fits-all approach is insufficient, local governments must consider both immediate and future impacts, as well as environmental trade-offs, alongside adopting national goals to develop effective MSW management strategies towards circular economy.