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How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster
Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem1, Ahad Hasan Tanim2,3, Audrika Nahian4
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA. amokhtar@email.sc.edu.
Nature Communications
|May 6, 2025
Summary
Storm Daniel caused catastrophic Libya floods. Dam failures amplified the surge wave, highlighting risks from aging infrastructure and inadequate preparedness for extreme weather events.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering
- Geotechnical Engineering
- Climate Science
Background:
- Storm Daniel caused unprecedented rainfall in the Wadi Derna watershed on September 11, 2023.
- This event led to one of the most devastating floods in modern history, impacting Derna, Libya.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct the disaster using an integrated modeling approach.
- To assess the impact of cascading dam failures on flood devastation.
- To identify factors escalating the disaster's impact.
Main Methods:
- Integrated modeling combining satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations.
- Machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data analysis.
- Assessment of cascading dam failure impacts.
Main Results:
- Even structurally sound dams offered minimal protection against extreme runoff.
- Dam failures released a destructive surge wave, amplifying devastation.
- Aging flood control infrastructure collapse, inadequate risk assessment, and poor emergency preparedness escalated the impact.
Conclusions:
- Urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations.
- Enhanced flood forecasting and adaptive risk management are crucial.
- Strategies must address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
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